These are my predictions for the 86th Academy Awards.
BEST PICTURE
What should win - Gravity
What will win - American Hustle, Dallas Buyers Club, Gravity, Her, 12 Years A Slave or The Wolf of Wall Street
This is the best selection of Oscar contenders in quite some time. Out of the nine nominees, six of them are unquestionably fantastic films that each have a legitimate chance at walking away with the gold. Most years the decision is fairly clear; this year it's a toss-up. I'll be happy as long as Nebraska or Philomena doesn't win.
BEST DIRECTOR
Who should win - Alfonso Cuarón for Gravity
Who will win - Alfonso Cuarón for Gravity
Cuarón deserves this plain and simple. He spent two years working on Gravity and it shows on both an emotional and technical level; it's his masterwork. I would be happy if David O. Russell or Martin Scorsese won as well.
BEST ACTOR
Who should win - Matthew McConaughey for Dallas Buyers Club
Who will win - Matthew McConaughey for Dallas Buyers Club
I was all for Chiwetel Ejiofor before seeing McConaughey transform himself for his role as Ron Woodruff. In the past few years, McConaughey has went from pretty-boy surfer to genuine powerhouse actor (see Killer Joe, Mud and True Detective if you don't believe me) and I could not be more impressed. Sorry Chiwetel, hopefully you'll get another shot in the future.
BEST ACTRESS
Who should win - Amy Adams for American Hustle
Who will win - Cate Blanchett for Blue Jasmine
Adams is the anchor in American Hustle and her fierce yet damaged performance as Sydney Prosser deserves recognition. However, the Academy loves Cate Blanchett and she has yet to win Best Actress so even though Blue Jasmine as a whole left a lot to be desired, Blanchett will win.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Who should win - Michael Fassbender for 12 Years A Slave
Who will win - Jared Leto for Dallas Buyers Club
Leto is excellent as a drug-addicted transgender woman with AIDS (the Academy eats all those things right up) and he won the Golden Globe so he'll win the Oscar. My pick is for Fassbender, who plays his psychotic, abusive, bible-thumping slave owner so viciously well it's unnerving.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Who should win - Lupita Nyong'o for 12 Years A Slave
Who will win - Jennifer Lawrence for American Hustle
Nyongo's heartbreaking performance as the target of most of Michael Fassbender's cruelty is hard to watch but she plays her role so completely that I'd love to see her win. Similar to Cate Blanchett, the Academy loves J-Law (rightfully so) and she took home the Golden Globe, so she looks like a shoo-in. The only thing working against her is that she won Best Actress last year and the Academy is notoriously stingy when it comes to consecutive wins.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
What should win - Her
What will win - American Hustle / Dallas Buyers Club
Her deserves this without a doubt for creating a truly unique love story that not only makes you think, but resonates so well in this digital age. However, the Academy is afraid of new things so they'll go the safe route and pick either American Hustle or Dallas Buyers Club, both of which are worthy.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
What should win - 12 Years A Slave
What will win - 12 Years A Slave / The Wolf Of Wall Street
Both outstanding adaptations have equal footing. The Academy loves historical dramas dealing with heavy issues, but I see a possible upset by The Wolf Of Wall Street thanks to Terence Winter's whip smart script.
BEST ANIMATED FILM
What should win - Frozen
What will win - Frozen
I have not seen Frozen, but it's one of Disney's best reviewed animated features not made by Pixar, so my money's on the mouse house prevailing. I do know The Croods doesn't deserve to win.
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
What should win - The Hunt
What will win - ?
Another category where I'm not too well-informed, but I did see The Hunt and it was absolutely phenomenal; a terrifying tale of the power of paranoia and gossip. The Academy adores this kind of stuff so I'll be SHOCKED if it doesn't win.
BEST DOCUMENTARY - FEATURE & SHORT
N/A - I haven't seen any of the nominees.
BEST SHORT FILM - LIVE ACTION & ANIMATED
N/A - I haven't seen any of the nominees.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
What should win - Her / Gravity
What will win - Gravity
This is a toss-up. Both scores were incredible and complimented their respective films beautifully. If I had to pick one, I'd go with Gravity only because Her's score was a bit too modern for the curmudgeonly Academy.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
What should win - "The Moon Song" from Her
What will win - "Let It Go" from Frozen
The pickings are slim here, but the eclectic nature of "The Moon Song" fits the film so magnificently that it frustrates me to know it won't win. If Frozen wins Best Animated Feature, "Let It Go" has this one in the bag.
BEST SOUND EDITING / SOUND MIXING
What should win - Gravity
What will win - Gravity
I combined these two categories because they go hand in hand and the same film usually wins both of them. These are technical awards and as I mentioned above, Gravity is so technically proficient that it will win both guaranteed.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
What should win - Gravity / American Hustle / 12 Years A Slave
What will win - Gravity
This award will depend on what wins Best Picture. Any films not set in the present time usually have the edge here, but since Gravity is set in freakin' outer space and strives for scientific accuracy, I believe it will win.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
What should win - Prisoners
What will win - Gravity
Roger Deakins' cinematography in Prisoners is so stunning and unique that it almost becomes a character itself, mirroring the bleak, tainted mindset of the protagonists. Watching this on Blu-ray was a sight to behold. However, I believe Gravity will sweep all the technical categories even though much of it was created digitally. My fingers are crossed for Prisoners.
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
What should win - Dallas Buyers Club
What will win - Dallas Buyers Club
Only three nominees in this category and none of them are particularly notably except Matthew McConaughey's slow deterioration as his illness worsens in Dallas Buyers Club. I was surprised The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug was not nominated.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
What should win - American Hustle
What will win - American Hustle / 12 Years A Slave
Both American Hustle and 12 Years A Slave recreate their respective settings beautifully, right down to the finest detail. While I have a feeling 12 Years A Slave will take this one, I hope American Hustle wins for its glorious recreation of its groovy 70's get-ups.
BEST FILM EDITING
What should win - Gravity
What will win - Gravity
Yet another category where the Oscar could go to any of the nominees, but because the sheer intensity of Gravity is experienced through its flawless editing which keeps you on the edge of your seat, I think it deserves to win without a doubt. And because it's a technical category, I believe it will.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
What should win - Gravity
What will win - Gravity
This is a no-brainer. None of the effects by the other nominees are particularly noteworthy. Nothing comes close to Gravity's undeniably impressive and expertly executed visual effects.
