2015 Oscar Predictions

Complete list of nominees

BEST PICTURE

What should win - Birdman
What will win - Birdman or Boyhood, possibly Whiplash or The Grand Budapest Hotel

This year's nominees aren't as impressive as last year's. Birdman is exactly what the Academy loves: a classic drama with a conflicted lead directed by an Academy darling and shot with immense technical precision. I will be disappointed if it does not win. Boyhood won the Golden Globe and is also a worthy candidate, being technically impressive as well as narratively resonant. Whiplash could be a surprise sweeper this year, but my gut says that J.K. Simmons gets Best Supporting Actor and that's it. The Grand Budapest Hotel also won the Golden Globe when pitted against Birdman, however the Academy has consistently snubbed director Wes Anderson over the years and I don't see them breaking that trend this year.

BEST DIRECTOR

Who should win - Alejandro González Iñárritu for Birdman
Who will win - Alejandro González Iñárritu or Richard Linklater for Boyhood

Much like last year's winner, fellow Mexican filmmaker Alfonso Cuarón, Iñárritu deserves this because Birdman is an outstanding film both dramatically and technically; it's his masterwork. I'm a huge Richard Linklater fan (Dazed and Confused is an all-time favorite of mine) and he is more than worthy of winning due to the sheer complexity of Boyhood. It was shot over a period of 12 years with the same actors, so the amount of work and dedication is unimaginable. I would be happy if he won as well. I don't know why Bennett Miller was nominated. I didn't find Foxcatcher to be all that great, especially from a directorial standpoint. The film has no flair or uniqueness behind it.

BEST ACTOR

Who should win - Michael Keaton for Birdman
Who will win - Michael Keaton, Benedict Cumberbatch or Eddie Redmayne

I REALLY want Keaton to win Best Actor. The guy has been an underrated and versatile actor his entire career and has never recevied much recognition for it. This is probably the last time he will have a chance to win an Oscar. The thing is he DESERVES IT. Keaton was sublime as Riggan Thompson giving us one of the best acting performances since Daniel Day-Lewis in There Will be Blood. Cumberbatch and Redmayne could pull out a win here too because of the Academy's love of historical dramas. I am SHOCKED and diappointed that Jake Gyllenhaal did not get nominated for Nightcrawler. He was in two amazing films in 2014 (the other being Enemy) and didn't get nominated for EITHER. WTF?! However he is young and between End of Watch, Prisoners, Enemy and Nightcrawler, Gyllenhaal has become one of my favorite modern actors and he'll probably win an Oscar in the near future.

BEST ACTRESS

Who should win - Reese Witherspoon for Wild
Who will win - Witherspoon, Julianne Moore for Still Alice or Felicity Jones for The Theory of Everything

All three actresses could potentially win this one. None are truly incredible performances but they are authentic and commendable. I liked Witherspoon's transformation into this flawed and rundown woman who finds hope in an unlikely place.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Who should win - J.K. Simmons for Whiplash
Who will win - J.K. Simmons or Edward Norton for Birdman

I was all for Ed Norton winning this one until I saw Simmons' volatile performance as a sadistic and abusive music teacher at a prestigious academy. He is brilliant and vicious; you can't take your eyes off him. A truly amazing show of acting. Norton is also magnificent and I would be more than happy with him winning, but Simmons deserves it more and Norton has already won before. I have no idea why Mark Ruffalo was even nominated...his role is totally unremarkable. The guy's a great actor, but Foxcatcher was far from his best performance.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

 Who should win - Patricia Arquette for Boyhood
Who will win - Arquette or Emma Stone for Birdman
 
Patricia Arquette gives a heart-wrenching performance as Mason's mom in Boyhood. She grows up along side him and we can see her change from an unprepared and confused young woman into a strong and confident mother. Likewise, Emma Stone plays against type as the sarcastic and vindictive daughter of Keaton's character. She may be young but she more than holds her own with all the heavy hitters. I don't think Laura Dern deserved a nomination either. Her role was very good but nothing amazing.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

What should win - Nightcrawler, Dan Gilroy
What will win - Birdman / Grand Budapest Hotel / Boyhood

Since I'm quite pissed about Gyllenhaal getting snubbed for Best Actor, I hope the screenplay might snag the film some recognition, as it was like Taxi Driver for the digital age. I'm not holding my breath though. Birdman is my guess since it won the Globe, but the others could just as easily win.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

What should win - The Imitation Game, Graham Moore or PT Anderson for Inherent Vice
What will win - The Imitation Game or Whiplash

None of the nominees particularly impressed me though I thought PT Anderson's job in adapting Inherent Vice's unconventional narrative style was deserving. The Imitation Game and Whiplash could win as well given the subject matter.

BEST ANIMATED FILM

What should win - Big Hero 6
What will win - Big Hero 6 or How To Train Your Dragon 2

I have not seen two of the nominees (Song of the Sea and Princess Kaguya), but Big Hero 6 impressed me with its ingenuity and tech-centric storyline (unusual waters for Disney) as did HTTYD2 with it's brilliant animation and story. Either is worthy.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

N/A - I haven't seen any of the nominees.

BEST DOCUMENTARY - FEATURE & SHORT

N/A - I haven't seen any of the nominees.

BEST SHORT FILM - LIVE ACTION & ANIMATED

N/A - I haven't seen any of the nominees.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

What should win - Interstellar, Hans Zimmer
What will win - Alexandre Desplat for both The Grand Budapest Hotel and The Imitation Game

Hans Zimmer's triumphant, ear-shattering score for Interstellar's time- and mind-bending space adventure gets my vote hands down. However out of the other nominees, the two most likely to win are BOTH the work of Mr. Desplat. His chances are good but Johann Johannson (love that name haha) could win for The Theory Of Everything even though I didn't find the score to be very memorable.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

What should win - "Everything Is Awesome" from The LEGO Movie
What will win - "Glory" from Selma

The infectious techno/dubstep style of "Everything Is Awesome" just fits the LEGO Movie so perfectly. Selma most likely takes home the Oscar for "Glory" since it won the GG.

BEST SOUND EDITING / SOUND MIXING

What should win - Interstellar
What will win - Interstellar or Birdman

I combined these two categories because they go hand in hand and the same film usually wins both of them. These are technical awards and given director Christopher Nolan's technical expertise and the nature of the film itself, I hope it wins. Birdman's unbroken take/single shot format is also amazing considering how precise it has to be, so it deserves to win as well.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

What should win - The Grand Budapest Hotel / Interstellar
What will win - The Grand Budapest Hotel

Wes Anderson's vibrant, eclectic style could (and should) win the Oscar, and I personally loved Interstellar's ultra-realistic set design and cool but grounded technolgy like TARS, the shuttles and gadgets. To be honest all of the nominees could take this as the Academy loves period pieces and whimsical musicals.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

What should win - Birdman, Emmanuel Lubezki
What will win - Birdman or The Grand Budapest Hotel, Robert Yeoman
 
These two are the only worthy candidates. The others aren't particularly noteworthy and as I mentioned, Anderson's style could nab Yeoman the statue. Emmanuel Lubezki won last year for Gravity and just may win this year as his technical skill to handle Iñárritu's long take style is impressive.

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

What should win - Guardians of the Galaxy
What will win - Guardians or The Grand Budapest Hotel

Only three nominees in this category and only two of them should win. I'm pulling for Guardians of the Galaxy because the make-up, particularly on Drax and Gamora, is top-notch. TGBH's age make-up was good and could possibly win, though I'm hoping GotG wins!

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

What should win - The Grand Budapest Hotel
What will win - The Grand Budapest Hotel / Into The Woods

The nifty bellhop uniforms and other quirky outfits featured in TGBH make this my choice and I think it will win, but the Academy's love of musicals may allow Into The Woods to steal this one.

BEST FILM EDITING

What should win - Whiplash, Tom Cross
What will win - Whiplash or Boyhood, Sandra Adair

Whiplash's hyper-fast editing during its drumming scenes is exceptional and really gives you a feel for the sheer intensity of the drumming itself and the quickness of the character' minds. However, editing together 12 years worth of footage into a cohesive film is a massive undertaking and Boyhood accomplishes this admirably. I personally thought it could've been trimmed by about 15 or 20 minutes (runtime 2 hrs, 4 min) and still been stellar.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

What should win - Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
What will win - DOTPOTA or Interstellar

I would be happy with any of the nominees winning this, as each one's effects were exemplary. My choice is Dawn of the Planet of the Apes because the motion capture work and CGI were incredible. Much like Gollum, I was completely invested in these digital characters thanks to near-perfect special effects. Interstellar's effects were jaw-dropping as well, and I think the Academy might pick it.

2014 Oscar Predictions

These are my predictions for the 86th Academy Awards.

BEST PICTURE

What should win - Gravity
What will win - American Hustle, Dallas Buyers Club, Gravity, Her, 12 Years A Slave or The Wolf of Wall Street

This is the best selection of Oscar contenders in quite some time. Out of the nine nominees, six of them are unquestionably fantastic films that each have a legitimate chance at walking away with the gold. Most years the decision is fairly clear; this year it's a toss-up. I'll be happy as long as Nebraska or Philomena doesn't win.

BEST DIRECTOR

Who should win - Alfonso Cuarón for Gravity
Who will win - Alfonso Cuarón for Gravity

Cuarón deserves this plain and simple. He spent two years working on Gravity and it shows on both an emotional and technical level; it's his masterwork. I would be happy if David O. Russell or Martin Scorsese won as well.

BEST ACTOR

Who should win - Matthew McConaughey for Dallas Buyers Club
Who will win - Matthew McConaughey for Dallas Buyers Club

I was all for Chiwetel Ejiofor before seeing McConaughey transform himself for his role as Ron Woodruff. In the past few years, McConaughey has went from pretty-boy surfer to genuine powerhouse actor (see Killer Joe, Mud and True Detective if you don't believe me) and I could not be more impressed. Sorry Chiwetel, hopefully you'll get another shot in the future.

BEST ACTRESS

Who should win - Amy Adams for American Hustle
Who will win - Cate Blanchett for Blue Jasmine

Adams is the anchor in American Hustle and her fierce yet damaged performance as Sydney Prosser deserves recognition. However, the Academy loves Cate Blanchett and she has yet to win Best Actress so even though Blue Jasmine as a whole left a lot to be desired, Blanchett will win.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Who should win - Michael Fassbender for 12 Years A Slave
Who will win - Jared Leto for Dallas Buyers Club

Leto is excellent as a drug-addicted transgender woman with AIDS (the Academy eats all those things right up) and he won the Golden Globe so he'll win the Oscar. My pick is for Fassbender, who plays his psychotic, abusive, bible-thumping slave owner so viciously well it's unnerving.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Who should win - Lupita Nyong'o for 12 Years A Slave
Who will win - Jennifer Lawrence for American Hustle

Nyongo's heartbreaking performance as the target of most of Michael Fassbender's cruelty is hard to watch but she plays her role so completely that I'd love to see her win. Similar to Cate Blanchett, the Academy loves J-Law (rightfully so) and she took home the Golden Globe, so she looks like a shoo-in. The only thing working against her is that she won Best Actress last year and the Academy is notoriously stingy when it comes to consecutive wins.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

What should win - Her
What will win - American Hustle / Dallas Buyers Club

Her deserves this without a doubt for creating a truly unique love story that not only makes you think, but resonates so well in this digital age. However, the Academy is afraid of new things so they'll go the safe route and pick either American Hustle or Dallas Buyers Club, both of which are worthy.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

What should win - 12 Years A Slave
What will win - 12 Years A Slave / The Wolf Of Wall Street

Both outstanding adaptations have equal footing. The Academy loves historical dramas dealing with heavy issues, but I see a possible upset by The Wolf Of Wall Street thanks to Terence Winter's whip smart script.

BEST ANIMATED FILM

What should win - Frozen
What will win - Frozen

I have not seen Frozen, but it's one of Disney's best reviewed animated features not made by Pixar, so my money's on the mouse house prevailing. I do know The Croods doesn't deserve to win.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

What should win - The Hunt
What will win - ?

Another category where I'm not too well-informed, but I did see The Hunt and it was absolutely phenomenal; a terrifying tale of the power of paranoia and gossip. The Academy adores this kind of stuff so I'll be SHOCKED if it doesn't win.

BEST DOCUMENTARY - FEATURE & SHORT

N/A - I haven't seen any of the nominees.

BEST SHORT FILM - LIVE ACTION & ANIMATED

N/A - I haven't seen any of the nominees.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

What should win - Her / Gravity
What will win - Gravity

This is a toss-up. Both scores were incredible and complimented their respective films beautifully. If I had to pick one, I'd go with Gravity only because Her's score was a bit too modern for the curmudgeonly Academy.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

What should win - "The Moon Song" from Her
What will win - "Let It Go" from Frozen

The pickings are slim here, but the eclectic nature of "The Moon Song" fits the film so magnificently that it frustrates me to know it won't win. If Frozen wins Best Animated Feature, "Let It Go" has this one in the bag.

BEST SOUND EDITING / SOUND MIXING

What should win - Gravity
What will win - Gravity

I combined these two categories because they go hand in hand and the same film usually wins both of them. These are technical awards and as I mentioned above, Gravity is so technically proficient that it will win both guaranteed.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

What should win - Gravity / American Hustle / 12 Years A Slave
What will win - Gravity

This award will depend on what wins Best Picture. Any films not set in the present time usually have the edge here, but since Gravity is set in freakin' outer space and strives for scientific accuracy, I believe it will win.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

What should win - Prisoners
What will win - Gravity

Roger Deakins' cinematography in Prisoners is so stunning and unique that it almost becomes a character itself, mirroring the bleak, tainted mindset of the protagonists. Watching this on Blu-ray was a sight to behold. However, I believe Gravity will sweep all the technical categories even though much of it was created digitally. My fingers are crossed for Prisoners.

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

What should win - Dallas Buyers Club
What will win - Dallas Buyers Club

Only three nominees in this category and none of them are particularly notably except Matthew McConaughey's slow deterioration as his illness worsens in Dallas Buyers Club. I was surprised The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug was not nominated.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

What should win - American Hustle
What will win - American Hustle / 12 Years A Slave

Both American Hustle and 12 Years A Slave recreate their respective settings beautifully, right down to the finest detail. While I have a feeling 12 Years A Slave will take this one, I hope American Hustle wins for its glorious recreation of its groovy 70's get-ups.

BEST FILM EDITING

What should win - Gravity
What will win - Gravity

Yet another category where the Oscar could go to any of the nominees, but because the sheer intensity of Gravity is experienced through its flawless editing which keeps you on the edge of your seat, I think it deserves to win without a doubt. And because it's a technical category, I believe it will.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

What should win - Gravity
What will win - Gravity

This is a no-brainer. None of the effects by the other nominees are particularly noteworthy. Nothing comes close to Gravity's undeniably impressive and expertly executed visual effects.